Among people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, survival varies widely and thus far, largely unpredictably. du Bois, Talmadge King et al used data from 2 large clinical trials on IPF (n=1,156) to create a useful model for predicting survival.
They culled the variables to those that were both robustly predictive and also readily obtainable: age, percent predicted forced vital capacity, percent decline in FVC over 24 months, and a history of respiratory hospitalization.
Combining these into a point score allowed accurate prediction of 1-year survival on a scale from >98%, to <20% (as compared to actuarial survival among subjects in the clinical trials). InterMune, makers of pirfenidone, funded the study. AJRCCM 2011;184:459-466.