Meadow et al followed 560 patients in one University of Chicago MICU throughout their ICU stay, cornering team members (attending, fellow, resident, nurse) each day and asking a simple question: Will this patient survive to discharge? The results were rich and fascinating. Of the 433 survivors, 77% had unanimous predictions of survival on all days. Of the 127 who died, 57% were unanimously predicted to eventually die on every day in the ICU. A single day of unanimous prognostication of death had an 84% positive predictive value, but when there was any discordance, PPV fell to 52-66%. Critical Care Med 2011;39:474-479.
Read VERY INTERESTING COMMENTS by lead author William Meadow.